Conspiratorial beliefs and misinformation: diffusion, susceptibility and mitigation

Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis

Abstract

Conspiracy beliefs and misinformation are shown to be associated with personal and societal negative outcomes, including social isolation, decreased trust in institutions, and intergroup prejudice. Factors that influence the acceptance of conspiracy theories and misinformation span several areas: including personality, demographics, cognition, and social identities. These areas are investigated in the following studies. Study one focuses on emotions and themes that provide engagement in conspiracy discussions on social media platforms. When compared to scientific and general discussions, analyses reveal that conspiracy discussions showed higher levels of language relating to anxiety, anger, power, and death compared to both controls. Discriminant Function Analysis shows that these negative emotions and topics are also associated with increased engagement (as measured by likes/shares) within such discussions. Results indicate that contrary to other topic areas, use of positive tone or emotion is associated with lower engagement, suggesting negativity to be the primary indicator of engagement in conspiracy discussions and the spread of conspiratorial ideas on social media.

As exposure does not always translate to acceptance of such beliefs, study two expands on this to determine characteristics that are associated with increased endorsement of conspiracy theories, and whether this is influenced by the contents of certain items. A Principal Components Analysis revealed five latent constructs within conspiracy theory items relating to several topics. The latent constructs were defined by characteristics of suspicion of left-wing and minority groups, trust in science/medicine, extraterrestrial activity, and esoteric beliefs. Regression analyses were performed to determine how psychosocial predictors would relate to higher endorsement of each collection of items. Broadly, the results suggest that beyond a general predisposition toward conspiratorial explanations, several other psychosocial factors were associated with each latent construct. Study two also assessed the protective effects of education with regard to several consistent predictors of conspiracy theories. The results were unexpected, and although higher education was generally protective, in some cases (e.g. higher levels of narcissistic traits or defensive identities) it was associated with an increased susceptibility to conspiracy beliefs.

Study three expands on these findings to assess the role that social identities play in acceptance of conspiracy beliefs and misinformation. Results suggest that a strong sense of identity (across politics, race, sexual orientation, and religion) is associated with increased acceptance of misinformation aligned with values and beliefs of important in-groups. Established and novel interventions re assessed in their ability to reduce susceptibility to misinformation, suggesting limited efficacy. The results hold implications for the role of identity in evaluation of evidence and are discussed in chapter six. Study three also uses the Theory of Planned Behaviour as a framework to assess how identity, perceived social norms and perceived efficacy are associated with adoption and sharing of misinformation on social media. Findings suggest that each factor plays an important role, and notably that factors such as identity were associated with willingness to share information regardless of perceived truth. Taken together, findings provide an understanding of how conspiracy theories and misinformation are spread on social media platforms, who may be most susceptible under certain conditions, and provide direction to improve collective ability to discern fact from fiction.
Date of Award2025
Original languageEnglish
SupervisorMark Bahr (Supervisor), Katarina Fritzon (Supervisor), Mark Bahr (Supervisor) & Katarina Fritzon (Supervisor)

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