Why do emerging geostrategic development paradigms succeed? Great and Middle Powers and the South Pacific Island Countries

This presentation explores the success of emerging geostrategic development paradigms, focusing on the interactions between great and middle powers and South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). The discussion is framed within the context of China's regionalization of foreign policy and its increasing influence in the South Pacific. The presentation examines the perceptions and interests driving these interactions, highlighting the economic and strategic shifts resulting from China's aid and infrastructure investments compared to those of the US and Australia.

Key themes include the comparative analysis of knowledge and interests versus perceptions and interests, and the implications of China's socialist state-directed market capitalism versus Western notions of debt-trap diplomacy. The presentation also addresses the strategic balance changes due to China's rising aid values and the declining interest of traditional powers like the US, Australia, and New Zealand post-Cold War.

The conclusion posits that China's model of development, characterized by socialism with Chinese characteristics, presents a viable alternative for SPICs. It emphasizes the need for these countries to develop policies that enable productive collaboration with China. The success of these paradigms is attributed to their political stability, economic prosperity, and societal acceptance, suggesting that the Chinese way may become the new normal in the absence of a better alternative.