The sequential estimation of subset VAR with forgetting factor and intercept variable

T. J. O'Neill, J. H W Penm, R. D. Terrell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

Abstract

In this paper we propose a forward time update algorithm to recursively estimate subset vector autoregressive models (including an intercept term) with a forgetting factor, using the exact window case. The proposed recursions cover, for the first time, subset vector autoregressive models (VAR) with a forgetting factor and an intercept variable. We then present two applications. In the first application we apply the proposed estimation algorithm to the quarterly aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange. The findings show that the proposed algorithm can improve the forecasting performance. In the second application a bivariate system investigates the relationship between the Australian's All Ordinaries Share Price Index (SPI) futures and BHP share price (BHP). The proposed algorithm also introduces the Monte Carlo Integration approach into the proposed algorithm to generate error bands for the impulse responses. These results confirm that the SPI Granger causes BHP, but not vice versa.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)979-995
Number of pages17
JournalInternational Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance
Volume7
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2004
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

Vector autoregressive model
Factors
Forgetting
Share prices
Price index
Impulse response
Metals
Monte Carlo integration
Forecasting performance
Recursion
Aluminum

Cite this

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The sequential estimation of subset VAR with forgetting factor and intercept variable. / O'Neill, T. J.; Penm, J. H W; Terrell, R. D.

In: International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, Vol. 7, No. 8, 01.12.2004, p. 979-995.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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