The international transmission of arbitrage information across futures markets

Chris Bilson, Tim Brailsford*, Twm Evans

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper examines whether deviations from a domestic spot-futures relation, as identified through mispricing series in stock index futures, spillover international boundaries. Such spillovers suggest that information from a mispricing series in one market conveys a signal of similar mispricing in another market. In the presence of arbitrage traders and in the absence of market frictions, mispricing series should be independent across international boundaries. The study employs a VAR analysis of stock index futures mispricing across three large futures markets - Australia, the UK and the USA. Using time zone differences, tests are conducted for the daily transmission of arbitrage information. The results reveal the relationship between mispricing series is bi-directional. Based on this finding, a trading strategy is employed to examine the economic significance of apparent profits. The results show that some profits are possible after transaction costs but that a long horizon, probably beyond the scope of most traders, is required to exploit the spillover information.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)973-1000
Number of pages28
JournalJournal of Business Finance and Accounting
Volume32
Issue number5-6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2005
Externally publishedYes

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