The fallacy of accuracy

Wayne Petherick

doi:10.1016/B978-1-4557-3174-9.00006-9

The fallacy of accuracy

Wayne Petherick^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Faculty of Society & Design

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Other chapter contribution › Research › peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This chapter covers The Fallacy of Accuracy in Criminal Profiling; that is, while accuracy is cited as one yardstick of whether a profile is useful, it may in fact be the worst predictor of the utility of a profile. For example, what happens if a profile is accurate on 10 characteristics, but none of them actually helps police identify any suspect pools? What about in another instance where the profile gives 10 characteristics, is accurate on three of them, and one of those three helps identify a suspect who turns out to be the killer? Which has the right to claim accuracy? Which on utility? These issues are discussed in detail.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Profiling and Serial Crime: Theoretical and Practical Issues
Editors	W Petherick
Publisher	Elsevier
Chapter	6
Pages	113-124
Number of pages	12
Edition	3rd
ISBN (Print)	9781455731749
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-4557-3174-9.00006-9
Publication status	Published - 2014

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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10.1016/B978-1-4557-3174-9.00006-9

Cite this

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title = "The fallacy of accuracy",

abstract = "This chapter covers The Fallacy of Accuracy in Criminal Profiling; that is, while accuracy is cited as one yardstick of whether a profile is useful, it may in fact be the worst predictor of the utility of a profile. For example, what happens if a profile is accurate on 10 characteristics, but none of them actually helps police identify any suspect pools? What about in another instance where the profile gives 10 characteristics, is accurate on three of them, and one of those three helps identify a suspect who turns out to be the killer? Which has the right to claim accuracy? Which on utility? These issues are discussed in detail.",

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AB - This chapter covers The Fallacy of Accuracy in Criminal Profiling; that is, while accuracy is cited as one yardstick of whether a profile is useful, it may in fact be the worst predictor of the utility of a profile. For example, what happens if a profile is accurate on 10 characteristics, but none of them actually helps police identify any suspect pools? What about in another instance where the profile gives 10 characteristics, is accurate on three of them, and one of those three helps identify a suspect who turns out to be the killer? Which has the right to claim accuracy? Which on utility? These issues are discussed in detail.

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BT - Profiling and Serial Crime: Theoretical and Practical Issues

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ER -

The fallacy of accuracy

Abstract

UN SDGs

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Profiling and serial crime: Theoretical and practical Issues

Cite this

The fallacy of accuracy

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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Related Research Outputs

Profiling and serial crime: Theoretical and practical Issues

Cite this