TY - JOUR
T1 - The effects of an energy use paradigm shift on carbon emissions: A simulation study
AU - Wu, Yuzhe
AU - Luo, Jiaojiao
AU - Shen, Liyin
AU - Skitmore, Martin
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments: This research is co-funded by the National Natural Science Foundation (Project No: 71373231) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.2-2050205-17-182). The paper was also completed with support from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, USA.
Funding Information:
This research is co-funded by the National Natural Science Foundation (Project No: 71373231) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.2-2050205-17-182). The paper was also completed with support from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, USA.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 by the authors.
Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2018/5/11
Y1 - 2018/5/11
N2 - Carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries are closely tied to their economy and play a crucial role in the world's future emissions. In this paper, we put forward an alternative energy use paradigm shift of low-carbon emissions from operational, governance, institutional, and cultural viewpoints (OGIC). An urbanization factor is introduced into the Kaya identity, and three simulations are conducted to forecast the carbon footprint and to explore the effects of the energy use paradigm shift policy. The simulation results show that, in the context of the energy use paradigm shift, the years 2015 and 2024 are the two inflection points that separate the carbon footprint into three periods of extensive consumption (2000-2015), early energy transition (2016-2023), and late energy transition (2024-2030). Overall, the peak carbon emission value is forecasted to appear during the third stage. The findings are expected to demonstrate the effects of the energy use paradigm shift on carbon emissions and assist policy makers formulate a scientific policy framework for low carbon development.
AB - Carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries are closely tied to their economy and play a crucial role in the world's future emissions. In this paper, we put forward an alternative energy use paradigm shift of low-carbon emissions from operational, governance, institutional, and cultural viewpoints (OGIC). An urbanization factor is introduced into the Kaya identity, and three simulations are conducted to forecast the carbon footprint and to explore the effects of the energy use paradigm shift policy. The simulation results show that, in the context of the energy use paradigm shift, the years 2015 and 2024 are the two inflection points that separate the carbon footprint into three periods of extensive consumption (2000-2015), early energy transition (2016-2023), and late energy transition (2024-2030). Overall, the peak carbon emission value is forecasted to appear during the third stage. The findings are expected to demonstrate the effects of the energy use paradigm shift on carbon emissions and assist policy makers formulate a scientific policy framework for low carbon development.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047109437&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3390/su10051639
DO - 10.3390/su10051639
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85047109437
SN - 2071-1050
VL - 10
JO - Sustainability (Switzerland)
JF - Sustainability (Switzerland)
IS - 5
M1 - 1639
ER -
