System Dynamics simulation of factors influencing organizational resilience for subway construction in emergency situations

Rapid urbanization has accelerated subway construction, introducing complex technological and safety challenges that heighten project risks. Enhancing organizational resilience and emergency risk management is thus critical for project success. However, existing studies often rely on static assessments and overlook dynamic interactions among key resilience factors. To address this, this study proposes a simulation framework integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and System Dynamics (SD) to identify, prioritize, and simulate factors affecting organizational resilience in emergencies. Based on accident reports, literature, and expert input, 28 key factors were categorized into four dimensions: prevention, adaptation, restoration, and external environment. AHP assigned factor weights, which were incorporated into an SD model based on China's Z subway project to simulate resilience evolution. Using causal loops and stock-flow diagrams, the model captures feedback mechanisms, with sensitivity analysis identifying leadership mental resilience and accountability in accident investigations as the most critical drivers. The AHP-SD framework offers a structured approach to analyzing resilience dynamics, supporting improved emergency preparedness and risk mitigation in large-scale infrastructure projects.