Synergy or conflict? Identification of coordination effects in the framework of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies

Efficiently curbing the intensity and pace of climate change involves synergetic adaptation and mitigation strategies. Despite their significance, the coordination effects of these strategies, as well as interactive response patterns, need to be further identified. In response, using data spanning 31 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022, the tailored evaluation systems are separately developed to quantify the adaptation and mitigation. Leveraging these quantitative results, the coupling coordination of climate adaptation and mitigation in each province is calculated to identify whether they are in synergy or conflict. Then, a comprehensive cross-judgment framework is developed to subdivide the synergistic effect into “low level” (SA) vs. “high level” (SB), and the conflict effect into “adaptation lag” (CA) vs. “mitigation lag” (CB). Ultimately, the interactive response patterns of urban internal adaptation and mitigation under each effect are further analyzed, as well as the evolutionary trends under the influence of spillovers from external neighboring provinces. The results show that the number of synergistic provinces is increasing, mainly located in economically active regions, while the number of conflict provinces is decreasing, mainly located in resource-consuming regions. Notably, SB provinces exhibit positive interactions with short-term lags in climate adaptation and mitigation, compared to SA provinces, which also exhibit positive interactions, but with a longer lag in effects. As for conflict provinces, no effective pattern of positive interactions has yet emerged. These findings can provide empirical support and decision-making references for provinces to accurately position themselves and adopt more synergistic action strategies.