New Zealand’s health workforce planning should embrace complexity and uncertainty

Concerns over New Zealand’s health workforce sufficiency, distribution and sustainability continue. Proposed solutions tend to focus on supplying medical professionals to meet predicted numbers or to resolve distributional problems. This is despite quantitative forecasts being known to have poor reliability. A recent study on New Zealand’s health workforce planning, which focused less on medical workforce numbers and more on the system’s organisation and constituent interrelations, highlights the use of complementary methods to define the problems and design a range of policy responses. Core to deciding on suitable interventions is the use of analysis tools, such as judgement-based approaches, which are commensurate with the actual levels of uncertainty being experienced, and which complement quantitative predictive forecasting.