Macro models of uk construction contract prices

Akintola Akintoye, Martin Skitmore

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper describes the derivation of macro construction contract price models that are based on the economic theory of demand and supply using OLS multiple regression analysis. A structural equation model is presented which offers a structural explanation of the movements in the construction tender price index. Leading indicators of contract prices (in real terms) produced by the structural equations were unemployment level, real interest rate, manufacturing profitability, number of registered construction firms, building cost index, construction productivity and construction work stoppages. The equation produced an adjusted R2 of 0.97 for deflated data with minimal serial autocorrelation. A predictive reduced-form model is also developed that utilises simultaneous equation models comprising construction demand, supply and equilibrium models.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)279-299
Number of pages21
JournalCivil Engineering Systems
Volume10
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 1993
Externally publishedYes

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