Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

Andrew Lewis, Marcus Randall, Sean Elliott, James Montgomery

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer-review

Abstract

The effects of climate change have been much speculated on
in the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest in
one of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularly
so given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, and
the degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predicting
precipitation and temperature for the next few decades as well
as developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining these
together, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a large
food producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.
For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,
an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to change
to adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainable
crop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigated
agriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettest
years.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComputational Science – ICCS 2019
EditorsJoão M.F. Rodrigues, Pedro J.S. Cardoso, Jânio Monteiro, Roberto Lam, Jack J. Dongarra, Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya, Michael H. Lees, Peter M.A. Sloot
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer
Pages369-382
Number of pages14
VolumeV
ISBN (Electronic)978-3-030-22750-0
ISBN (Print)9783030227333
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 8 Jun 2019
EventThe 19th International Conference on Computational Science: Computational Science in the Interconnected World - Faro, Portugal
Duration: 12 Jun 201914 Jun 2019
Conference number: 19th
https://www.iccs-meeting.org/iccs2019/

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science
PublisherSpringer
Volume11540
ISSN (Print)0302-9743

Conference

ConferenceThe 19th International Conference on Computational Science
Abbreviated titleICCS 2019
CountryPortugal
CityFaro
Period12/06/1914/06/19
OtherThe International Conference on Computational Science is an annual conference that brings together researchers and scientists from mathematics and computer science as basic computing disciplines, researchers from various application areas who are pioneering computational methods in sciences such as physics, chemistry, life sciences, and engineering, as well as in arts and humanitarian fields, to discuss problems and solutions in the area, to identify new issues, and to shape future directions for research.

The theme for ICCS 2019 is “Computational Science in the Interconnected World”, to highlight the role of Computational Science in an increasingly interconnected world. This conference will be a unique event focusing on recent developments in: scalable scientific algorithms; advanced software tools; computational grids; advanced numerical methods; and novel application areas. These innovative novel models, algorithms and tools drive new science through efficient application in areas such as physical systems, computational and systems biology, environmental systems, finance, and others.
Internet address

Fingerprint

crop
climate change
land degradation
arable land
food security
irrigation
planning
temperature
effect
land
analysis

Cite this

Lewis, A., Randall, M., Elliott, S., & Montgomery, J. (2019). Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. In J. M. F. Rodrigues, P. J. S. Cardoso, J. Monteiro, R. Lam, J. J. Dongarra, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, M. H. Lees, ... P. M. A. Sloot (Eds.), Computational Science – ICCS 2019 (Vol. V, pp. 369-382). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11540). Cham: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27
Lewis, Andrew ; Randall, Marcus ; Elliott, Sean ; Montgomery, James. / Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. Computational Science – ICCS 2019. editor / João M.F. Rodrigues ; Pedro J.S. Cardoso ; Jânio Monteiro ; Roberto Lam ; Jack J. Dongarra ; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya ; Michael H. Lees ; Peter M.A. Sloot. Vol. V Cham : Springer, 2019. pp. 369-382 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science).
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title = "Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning",
abstract = "The effects of climate change have been much speculated onin the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest inone of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularlyso given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, andthe degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predictingprecipitation and temperature for the next few decades as wellas developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining thesetogether, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a largefood producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to changeto adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainablecrop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigatedagriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettestyears.",
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Lewis, A, Randall, M, Elliott, S & Montgomery, J 2019, Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. in JMF Rodrigues, PJS Cardoso, J Monteiro, R Lam, JJ Dongarra, VV Krzhizhanovskaya, MH Lees & PMA Sloot (eds), Computational Science – ICCS 2019. vol. V, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 11540, Springer, Cham, pp. 369-382, The 19th International Conference on Computational Science, Faro, Portugal, 12/06/19. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. / Lewis, Andrew; Randall, Marcus; Elliott, Sean; Montgomery, James.

Computational Science – ICCS 2019. ed. / João M.F. Rodrigues; Pedro J.S. Cardoso; Jânio Monteiro; Roberto Lam; Jack J. Dongarra; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya; Michael H. Lees; Peter M.A. Sloot. Vol. V Cham : Springer, 2019. p. 369-382 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11540).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionResearchpeer-review

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Lewis A, Randall M, Elliott S, Montgomery J. Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. In Rodrigues JMF, Cardoso PJS, Monteiro J, Lam R, Dongarra JJ, Krzhizhanovskaya VV, Lees MH, Sloot PMA, editors, Computational Science – ICCS 2019. Vol. V. Cham: Springer. 2019. p. 369-382. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27