Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

Andrew Lewis; Marcus Randall; Sean Elliott; James Montgomery

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

Andrew Lewis, Marcus Randall, Sean Elliott, James Montgomery

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

101 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The effects of climate change have been much speculated on
in the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest in
one of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularly
so given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, and
the degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predicting
precipitation and temperature for the next few decades as well
as developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining these
together, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a large
food producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.
For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,
an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to change
to adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainable
crop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigated
agriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettest
years.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Computational Science – ICCS 2019
Editors	João M.F. Rodrigues, Pedro J.S. Cardoso, Jânio Monteiro, Roberto Lam, Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya, Michael H. Lees, Peter M.A. Sloot, Jack J. Dongarra
Place of Publication	Cham
Publisher	Springer
Pages	369-382
Number of pages	14
Volume	V
ISBN (Electronic)	978-3-030-22750-0
ISBN (Print)	9783030227333
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27
Publication status	E-pub ahead of print - 8 Jun 2019
Event	The 19th International Conference on Computational Science: Computational Science in the Interconnected World - Faro, Portugal Duration: 12 Jun 2019 → 14 Jun 2019 Conference number: 19th https://www.iccs-meeting.org/iccs2019/

Publication series

Name	Lecture Notes in Computer Science
Publisher	Springer
Volume	11540
ISSN (Print)	0302-9743

Conference

Conference	The 19th International Conference on Computational Science
Abbreviated title	ICCS 2019
Country/Territory	Portugal
City	Faro
Period	12/06/19 → 14/06/19
Other	The International Conference on Computational Science is an annual conference that brings together researchers and scientists from mathematics and computer science as basic computing disciplines, researchers from various application areas who are pioneering computational methods in sciences such as physics, chemistry, life sciences, and engineering, as well as in arts and humanitarian fields, to discuss problems and solutions in the area, to identify new issues, and to shape future directions for research. The theme for ICCS 2019 is “Computational Science in the Interconnected World”, to highlight the role of Computational Science in an increasingly interconnected world. This conference will be a unique event focusing on recent developments in: scalable scientific algorithms; advanced software tools; computational grids; advanced numerical methods; and novel application areas. These innovative novel models, algorithms and tools drive new science through efficient application in areas such as physical systems, computational and systems biology, environmental systems, finance, and others.
Internet address	https://www.iccs-meeting.org/iccs2019/

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop PlanningAccepted author manuscript, 231 KBLicence: Other

https://www.iccs-meeting.org/archive/iccs2019/papers/115360363.pdf

Cite this

Lewis, A., Randall, M., Elliott, S., & Montgomery, J. (2019). Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. In J. M. F. Rodrigues, P. J. S. Cardoso, J. Monteiro, R. Lam, V. V. Krzhizhanovskaya, M. H. Lees, P. M. A. Sloot, & J. J. Dongarra (Eds.), Computational Science – ICCS 2019 (Vol. V, pp. 369-382). (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11540). Springer. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Lewis, Andrew ; Randall, Marcus ; Elliott, Sean et al. / Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. Computational Science – ICCS 2019. editor / João M.F. Rodrigues ; Pedro J.S. Cardoso ; Jânio Monteiro ; Roberto Lam ; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya ; Michael H. Lees ; Peter M.A. Sloot ; Jack J. Dongarra. Vol. V Cham : Springer, 2019. pp. 369-382 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science).

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abstract = "The effects of climate change have been much speculated onin the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest inone of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularlyso given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, andthe degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predictingprecipitation and temperature for the next few decades as wellas developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining thesetogether, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a largefood producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to changeto adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainablecrop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigatedagriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettestyears.",

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Lewis, A, Randall, M, Elliott, S & Montgomery, J 2019, Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. in JMF Rodrigues, PJS Cardoso, J Monteiro, R Lam, VV Krzhizhanovskaya, MH Lees, PMA Sloot & JJ Dongarra (eds), Computational Science – ICCS 2019. vol. V, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 11540, Springer, Cham, pp. 369-382, The 19th International Conference on Computational Science, Faro, Portugal, 12/06/19. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. / Lewis, Andrew; Randall, Marcus; Elliott, Sean et al.
Computational Science – ICCS 2019. ed. / João M.F. Rodrigues; Pedro J.S. Cardoso; Jânio Monteiro; Roberto Lam; Valeria V. Krzhizhanovskaya; Michael H. Lees; Peter M.A. Sloot; Jack J. Dongarra. Vol. V Cham: Springer, 2019. p. 369-382 (Lecture Notes in Computer Science; Vol. 11540).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › Research › peer-review

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T1 - Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

AU - Lewis, Andrew

AU - Randall, Marcus

AU - Elliott, Sean

AU - Montgomery, James

N1 - Conference code: 19th

PY - 2019/6/8

Y1 - 2019/6/8

N2 - The effects of climate change have been much speculated onin the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest inone of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularlyso given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, andthe degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predictingprecipitation and temperature for the next few decades as wellas developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining thesetogether, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a largefood producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to changeto adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainablecrop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigatedagriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettestyears.

AB - The effects of climate change have been much speculated onin the past few years. Consequently, there has been intense interest inone of its key issues of food security into the future. This is particularlyso given population increase, urban encroachment on arable land, andthe degradation of the land itself. Recently, work has been done on predictingprecipitation and temperature for the next few decades as wellas developing optimisation models for crop planning. Combining thesetogether, this paper examines the effects of climate change on a largefood producing region in Australia, the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area.For time periods between 1991 and 2071 for dry, average and wet years,an analysis is made about the way that crop mixes will need to changeto adapt for the eects of climate change. It is found that sustainablecrop choices will change into the future, and that large-scale irrigatedagriculture may become unviable in the region in all but the wettestyears.

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A2 - Krzhizhanovskaya, Valeria V.

A2 - Lees, Michael H.

A2 - Sloot, Peter M.A.

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PB - Springer

CY - Cham

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ER -

Lewis A, Randall M, Elliott S, Montgomery J. Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning. In Rodrigues JMF, Cardoso PJS, Monteiro J, Lam R, Krzhizhanovskaya VV, Lees MH, Sloot PMA, Dongarra JJ, editors, Computational Science – ICCS 2019. Vol. V. Cham: Springer. 2019. p. 369-382. (Lecture Notes in Computer Science). Epub 2019 Jun 8. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-22734-0_27

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Climate-aware Sustainable Crop Planning Approaches for Australia

A Computational Comparison of Evolutionary Algorithms for Water Resource Planning for Agricultural and Environmental Purposes

Constrained optimisation of agricultural water management with parameter-sensitive objectives

Cite this

Long Term Implications of Climate Change on Crop Planning

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Related Projects

Climate-aware Sustainable Crop Planning Approaches for Australia

Related Research Outputs

A Computational Comparison of Evolutionary Algorithms for Water Resource Planning for Agricultural and Environmental Purposes

Constrained optimisation of agricultural water management with parameter-sensitive objectives

Cite this