## Abstract

What is already known on this topic:

⇒ The risk ratio (relative risk) is a ratio of two risks that is interpreted

as connecting the intervention conditional risks in a clinical trial.

What this study adds:

⇒ It is demonstrated that the conventional interpretation of the risk ratio is in conflict with Bayes’ theorem.

⇒ The interpretation of the risk ratio as a likelihood ratio connecting prior

(unconditional) intervention risk to outcome conditional intervention risk is required to avoid conflict with Bayes’ theorem.

How this study might affect research, practice or policy:

⇒ The interpretation of the risk ratio as an effect measure in a clinical trial

is naïve and better replaced by its interpretation as a likelihood ratio.

⇒ The ratio of the complementary risk ratio's (or likelihood ratio's) is what

should actually be interpreted as an effect measure connecting the

intervention conditional risks in a clinical trial.

⇒ The risk ratio (relative risk) is a ratio of two risks that is interpreted

as connecting the intervention conditional risks in a clinical trial.

What this study adds:

⇒ It is demonstrated that the conventional interpretation of the risk ratio is in conflict with Bayes’ theorem.

⇒ The interpretation of the risk ratio as a likelihood ratio connecting prior

(unconditional) intervention risk to outcome conditional intervention risk is required to avoid conflict with Bayes’ theorem.

How this study might affect research, practice or policy:

⇒ The interpretation of the risk ratio as an effect measure in a clinical trial

is naïve and better replaced by its interpretation as a likelihood ratio.

⇒ The ratio of the complementary risk ratio's (or likelihood ratio's) is what

should actually be interpreted as an effect measure connecting the

intervention conditional risks in a clinical trial.

Original language | English |
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Number of pages | 3 |

Journal | BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine |

DOIs | |

Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 11 Aug 2022 |