Abstract
China’s BRI will likely re-emphasize neighborhood and resource-oriented diplomacy to maximize economic benefits and in response to rising geopolitical tensions. This will entail a greater focus on contiguous states, such as Nepal and Myanmar — as well as on providers of essential resources, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Australia, and markets in fellow Asian states. The statecraft of the United States and its closest allies will increasingly determine the limits of the BRI, as U.S. pressure on Panama recently demonstrated. However, it may also provide new opportunities if America First policies such as tariffs reduce the appeal of U.S. leadership.
The BRI’s limitations are presently most identifiable in digital technology. For example, the Australian government banned the use of DeepSeek on government devices. Nonetheless, the BRI will continue to add digital connectivity, green energy, and healthcare projects to the original focus on large-scale infrastructure.
The debt-to-benefit outcomes for participating states remain problematic. Also, the interests of the Chinese Community Party mean that other states’ interests are not a priority in selecting BRI projects. For example, Pakistan gained under-utilized airport and port facilities at Gwadar but might have achieved better benefits from upgrading infrastructure in Islamabad, Lahore, or Karachi.
The BRI’s limitations are presently most identifiable in digital technology. For example, the Australian government banned the use of DeepSeek on government devices. Nonetheless, the BRI will continue to add digital connectivity, green energy, and healthcare projects to the original focus on large-scale infrastructure.
The debt-to-benefit outcomes for participating states remain problematic. Also, the interests of the Chinese Community Party mean that other states’ interests are not a priority in selecting BRI projects. For example, Pakistan gained under-utilized airport and port facilities at Gwadar but might have achieved better benefits from upgrading infrastructure in Islamabad, Lahore, or Karachi.