Improving the estimation of probability of bidder participation in procurement auctions

Pablo Ballesteros-Pérez*, Martin Skitmore, Eugenio Pellicer, Jimmy H. Gutiérrez-Bahamondes

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)
3 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Anticipating the number and identity of bidders has significant influence in many theoretical results of the auction itself and bidders' bidding behaviour. This is because when a bidder knows in advance which specific bidders are likely competitors, this knowledge gives a company a head start when setting the bid price. However, despite these competitive implications, most previous studies have focused almost entirely on forecasting the number of bidders and only a few authors have dealt with the identity dimension qualitatively. Using a case study with immediate real-life applications, this paper develops a method for estimating every potential bidder's probability of participating in a future auction as a function of the tender economic size removing the bias caused by the contract size opportunities distribution. This way, a bidder or auctioner will be able to estimate the likelihood of a specific group of key, previously identified bidders in a future tender.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)158-172
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Project Management
Volume34
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2016
Externally publishedYes

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