Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Marie Ng, Tom Fleming, Margaret Robinson, Blake Thomson, Nicolas Graetz, Christopher Margono, Erin C Mullany, Stan Biryukov, Cristiana Abbafati, Nicolas Stapelberg

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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Abstract

Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3- 30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)766-781
Number of pages16
JournalThe Lancet
Volume384
Issue number9945
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Externally publishedYes

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Pediatric Obesity
Obesity
Tonga
Micronesia
Developed Countries
Self Report
Uncertainty
Samoa
Qatar
Libya
Kuwait
Global Burden of Disease
Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Health
Population
Developing Countries
Linear Models
Body Mass Index
Weights and Measures

Cite this

Ng, Marie ; Fleming, Tom ; Robinson, Margaret ; Thomson, Blake ; Graetz, Nicolas ; Margono, Christopher ; Mullany, Erin C ; Biryukov, Stan ; Abbafati, Cristiana ; Stapelberg, Nicolas. / Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: The Lancet. 2014 ; Vol. 384, No. 9945. pp. 766-781.
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title = "Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",
abstract = "Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9{\%} of years of life lost, and 3·8{\%} of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95{\%} uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8{\%} (95{\%} UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9{\%} (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8{\%} (29·3- 30·2) to 38·0{\%} (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8{\%} (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6{\%} (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1{\%} (7·7-8·6) to 12·9{\%} (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4{\%} (8·1-8·8) to 13·4{\%} (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50{\%} in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
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Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Ng, Marie; Fleming, Tom; Robinson, Margaret; Thomson, Blake; Graetz, Nicolas; Margono, Christopher ; Mullany, Erin C; Biryukov, Stan; Abbafati, Cristiana; Stapelberg, Nicolas.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 384, No. 9945, 2014, p. 766-781.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013

T2 - A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

AU - Ng, Marie

AU - Fleming, Tom

AU - Robinson, Margaret

AU - Thomson, Blake

AU - Graetz, Nicolas

AU - Margono, Christopher

AU - Mullany, Erin C

AU - Biryukov, Stan

AU - Abbafati, Cristiana

AU - Stapelberg, Nicolas

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3- 30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013. Methods We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19 244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Findings Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m2 or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3- 30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down. Interpretation Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60460-8

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SP - 766

EP - 781

JO - Lancet

JF - Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

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