Financial Incentives Drive Queensland Home Solar Uptake: Evidence from SEM

This study examines causal pathways underpinning residential solar photovoltaic (SPV) adoption in Queensland, Australia. Using survey data (n = 574) and partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM), we test direct effects and mediations among Financial, Policy-Regulations, Socio-Environmental and Technological constructs. The measurement model shows strong, significant loadings. In the structural model, the Financial → Uptake path is large and significant, whereas direct paths from Policy-Regulations, Socio-Environmental and Technological constructs to uptake are weak or non-significant. Mediation tests show that policy works primarily through finance: Policy-Regs → Financial → Uptake and Technological → Financial → Uptake are significant. Total effects confirm strong policy links via financial and technological channels despite a non-significant direct policy effect. Findings indicate financial mechanisms (bill savings, expectations of future costs, property rights/homeownership) remain pivotal levers in a mature SPV market. Policy stability and targeted financial instruments are likely to outperform stand-alone technological or environmental messaging