OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the predictive accuracy of the modified clinical prognostic tool Criteria for Screening and Triaging to Appropriate aLternative care (CriSTAL) to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality in older patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery.
BACKGROUND: Anticipating the mid-term mortality of older patients undergoing urgent surgery is complex and flawed with uncertainty.
METHODS: A prospective study of consecutive ≥ 65 years old presenting at the emergency department who subsequently underwent urgent abdominal surgery. The modified CriSTAL score was calculated in the sample using the FRAIL scale instead of the Clinical Frailty Scale. Discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC)) and model calibration were used to test the predictive accuracy of the modified CriSTAL score for death within 30-day mortality as the primary outcome.
RESULTS: A total of 500 patients (median age 78 years) were enrolled. The observed 30-day and 90-day mortality rate were 11.6% and 13.6%. The modified CriSTAL tool AUROC curve to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality was 0.78 and 0.77. The model was well calibrated according to the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p: 0.302) and the calibration plots to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality.
CONCLUSIONS: The modified CriSTAL tool (with FRAIL scale as frailty instrument) had good discriminant power and was well calibrated to predict 30-day and 90-day mortality in elderly patients undergoing urgent abdominal surgery. The modified CriSTAL tool is an easy preoperative tool that could assist in the prognosis of postoperative outcomes and decision-making discussions with patients before for urgent abdominal surgery.