Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Robert Wrathall, Rodney Falvey, Gulasekaran Rajaguru

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Abstract

We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)223-239
Number of pages17
JournalAustralian Journal of Management
Volume45
Issue number2
Early online date2 Nov 2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2020

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