Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?

Robert Wrathall, Rodney Falvey, Gulasekaran Rajaguru

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Abstract

We extend the empirical analysis of hot hands in sports to horse racing, using the winning streaks of a sample of jockeys riding in Australia. Grouping jockeys by strike rate (win percentage), we find evidence of hot hands across almost all strike rates. But considering jockeys individually, only a minority exhibit hot hands. A wagering strategy based on hot hands yields a negative return overall and for most hot hand jockeys, although some do yield a positive return. We conclude that hot hands are present but not ubiquitous and that this is generally recognised in the betting market.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages17
JournalAustralian Journal of Management
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 2 Nov 2019

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