Did Herschelle Gibbs Really Drop the 1999 Cricket World Cup: and other uses of the Duckworth-Lewis Methodology

The Duckworth-Lewis methodology introduced in the mid-1990’s forms the basis for the current DLS method used to set targets in interrupted limited-overs cricket matches. The essence of the methodology is the determination of a measure of scoring “resources” associated with any given collection of overs and a given number of available wickets. As has been discussed in various other venues, this concept of scoring resources can be used in ways beyond that of target resetting. In this talk, I will discuss two such ways: determining the cost of a missed dismissal (e.g., a dropped catch or missed stumping or run out) and constructing a consistent measure of winning margin for first and second innings victories. The ideas will be illustrated by several examples including Herschelle Gibbs’ famous drop in the 1999 Cricket World Cup as well as an alternative team ranking methodology to the current method developed by David Kendix which incorporates victory margin and some telling examples regarding the inadequacy of net run rate as a secondary ranking criterion in league and tournament group-stage play.