An integrative approach to tourism forecasting: A glance in the rearview mirror

Carmen Tideswell, Trevor Mules, Bill Faulkner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia's domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South Australian experience, is also made. The findings suggest that the forecast accuracy for both international and domestic visitors was quite high overall. However, this apparent accuracy disguises some significant inaccuracies for particular segments, such as New Zealand and Other Asia, illustrating the difficulty of using time-series-type approaches to tourism forecasting in situations where the numbers are quite small and subject to significant volatility.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)162-171
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Volume40
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2001
Externally publishedYes

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Mirrors
tourism
Tourism
tourism market
bottom-up approach
international tourism
industry
Time series
Industry
economic impact
Economics
time series
Tourism forecasting
New Zealand
Forecast accuracy
market
forecast
experience
Bottom-up
Impact studies

Cite this

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abstract = "In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia's domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South Australian experience, is also made. The findings suggest that the forecast accuracy for both international and domestic visitors was quite high overall. However, this apparent accuracy disguises some significant inaccuracies for particular segments, such as New Zealand and Other Asia, illustrating the difficulty of using time-series-type approaches to tourism forecasting in situations where the numbers are quite small and subject to significant volatility.",
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An integrative approach to tourism forecasting : A glance in the rearview mirror. / Tideswell, Carmen; Mules, Trevor; Faulkner, Bill.

In: Journal of Travel Research, Vol. 40, No. 2, 2001, p. 162-171.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleResearchpeer-review

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