Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise

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This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation


ConferenceChina-Australia Cooperation Forum
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