Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation

Four Scenarios, One Surprise

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractResearchpeer-review

Abstract

This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

Conference

ConferenceChina-Australia Cooperation Forum
CountryChina
CityFuzhou
Period10/05/1813/05/18
Internet address

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scenario
power politics
prosperity
peace
sustainable development
road
planning

Cite this

Dellios, R. (Accepted/In press). Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise. Abstract from China-Australia Cooperation Forum, Fuzhou, China.
Dellios, Rosita. / Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation : Four Scenarios, One Surprise. Abstract from China-Australia Cooperation Forum, Fuzhou, China.
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title = "Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise",
abstract = "This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation",
author = "Rosita Dellios",
note = "This conference paper is to be published in a book by the organisers. So I have it closed to the public for now.; China-Australia Cooperation Forum : Promoting Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region ; Conference date: 10-05-2018 Through 13-05-2018",
year = "2018",
language = "English",
url = "https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/asiainsights/china-australia-cooperation-forum-promoting-cooperation-in-the-asia-pacific-region/",

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Dellios, R 2018, 'Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise' China-Australia Cooperation Forum, Fuzhou, China, 10/05/18 - 13/05/18, .

Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation : Four Scenarios, One Surprise. / Dellios, Rosita.

2018. Abstract from China-Australia Cooperation Forum, Fuzhou, China.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractResearchpeer-review

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T1 - Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation

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AU - Dellios, Rosita

N1 - This conference paper is to be published in a book by the organisers. So I have it closed to the public for now.

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N2 - This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

AB - This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

M3 - Abstract

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Dellios R. Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise. 2018. Abstract from China-Australia Cooperation Forum, Fuzhou, China.