Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise

Rosita Dellios

Abstract

This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

Original language	English
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 2018
Event	China-Australia Cooperation Forum: Promoting Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region - Fuzhou, China Duration: 10 May 2018 → 13 May 2018 https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/asiainsights/china-australia-cooperation-forum-promoting-cooperation-in-the-asia-pacific-region/

Conference

Conference	China-Australia Cooperation Forum
Country/Territory	China
City	Fuzhou
Period	10/05/18 → 13/05/18
Internet address	https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/asiainsights/china-australia-cooperation-forum-promoting-cooperation-in-the-asia-pacific-region/

Cite this

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title = "Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise",

abstract = "This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative{\textquoteright}s sustainable development and (2) the region{\textquoteright}s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled {\textquoteleft}Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Peace and Prosperity{\textquoteright}, {\textquoteleft}Agents of Order{\textquoteright}, and {\textquoteleft}Power Politics{\textquoteright}, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A {\textquoteleft}wild card{\textquoteright} scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called {\textquoteleft}America to the rescue{\textquoteright}. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation",

author = "Rosita Dellios",

note = "This conference paper is to be published in a book by the organisers. So I have it closed to the public for now.; China-Australia Cooperation Forum : Promoting Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region ; Conference date: 10-05-2018 Through 13-05-2018",

year = "2018",

language = "English",

url = "https://blogs.griffith.edu.au/asiainsights/china-australia-cooperation-forum-promoting-cooperation-in-the-asia-pacific-region/",

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TY - CONF

T1 - Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation

T2 - China-Australia Cooperation Forum

AU - Dellios, Rosita

N1 - This conference paper is to be published in a book by the organisers. So I have it closed to the public for now.

PY - 2018

Y1 - 2018

N2 - This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

AB - This paper identifies four alternative futures based on two key driving forces – (1) the Belt and Road Initiative’s sustainable development and (2) the region’s security profile along a soft-hard power axis – that hold implications for cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region in the medium-term of 20 years. The resultant scenarios, titled ‘Burnt Bridges in a Global Setting’, ‘Peace and Prosperity’, ‘Agents of Order’, and ‘Power Politics’, are assessed for their likelihood and consequences. A ‘wild card’ scenario is also created to provide a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. This surprise scenario is called ‘America to the rescue’. The aim of the exercise is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for regional cooperation

M3 - Abstract

Y2 - 10 May 2018 through 13 May 2018

ER -

Alternative Futures for Asia-Pacific Cooperation: Four Scenarios, One Surprise

Abstract

Conference

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