Closed-door workshop: Abstract - In this Roundtable I would like to identify four alternative futures based on two key driving forces and open these to discussion. The timeframe I have chosen is the medium-term of 20 years. For each of the resultant scenarios I make an estimate of their likelihood and consequences. A fifth ‘Wild Card’ scenario is also added for a more varied predictive horizon to assist in planning. The aim of producing these alternative scenarios is to examine a range of possibilities that could help in prescribing policies to develop more fully the potential for multilateral cooperation for mutually positive outcomes, while also planning ahead for what could go wrong and taking action in advance to minimise the dangers. In short, both the bright and the bleak views of the future of BRI are contemplated – as well as some that are less extreme.
19 Sep 2018
International Symposium Institute of International Relations and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic